The rebels are buffeted by internal ructions and regional diplomacy
反对派在内乱和地区外交的双面夹击中前行
Mar 30th 2013 | BEIRUT |From the print edition
Has Khatib resigned or not?
哈提卜是否真正辞职了？
EARLIER this year things had been going rather well, militarily and politically, for Syria’s eternally fractious opposition and its rebel allies. Western governments had promised to channel more aid to the new Syrian National Coalition, an umbrella group in exile, for passing on to fighters battling Bashar Assad’s regime on the ground. Moaz al-Khatib, the coalition’s head, had emerged as a cannier and more popular politician than his predecessors seeking to unite Syria’s opposition. Yet on March 24th it was thrown into disarray when Mr Khatib resigned.
今年早些时候，叙利亚极端反对派及其盟友在军事行动和政治上都进展得相当不错。西方国家曾承诺向流亡“伞形集团”，即新成立的叙利亚国家联盟提供更多的援助，派遣歼击机对巴沙尔•阿萨德政府进行地面打击。在力图联合叙利亚反对势力上，现任国家联盟领导人穆瓦兹•哈提卜比前任更为精明，且是一位更受欢迎的政治家。然而，3月24日哈提卜的辞职，使得叙利亚再一次陷入混乱。
A widely respected former preacher at one of Damascus’s biggest mosques, Mr Khatib had become frustrated by the coalition’s refusal to broaden its membership and listen to new ideas. A case in point was the recent election of Ghassan Hitto to be prime minister of an interim government. Disgruntled members of the opposition accused the Muslim Brotherhood of empowering Mr Hitto, a hitherto little-known businessman who had spent many years in Texas. Several coalition members resigned in protest, while the head of the opposition’s military wing, Selim Idriss, said he would not accept Mr Hitto’s authority.
曾在大马士革其中一家最大的清真寺担任牧师且广受尊敬的哈提卜对该联盟拒绝扩大阵营以及听取新的建议的行为感到很失望。最近选举加萨尼・希托为“过渡政府”总理就是这样的一个事例。愤愤不平的反对者指责“穆斯林兄弟会”授权给多年在（美国）德克萨斯州经商且迄今鲜为人知的希托。有几位联盟成员辞职以示抗议，反对势力的军事派首领塞利姆•埃德瑞斯（自由军总参谋长）表示他不会接受希托当局。
Mr Khatib, with an American nod, has been wary of forming an interim government, thinking that it would make it harder for the opposition to negotiate with the Syrian regime, which he had controversially declared himself open to doing. The Qataris and the Muslim Brotherhood, which apparently favour Mr Hitto, take a harder line, insisting that Mr Assad should go as a precondition for any negotiations.
获得美国首肯的哈提卜哈提卜在建立一个“过渡政府”上一直都是小心行事，他认为很难让反对派和叙利亚政府进行谈判，他曾经主张和叙政府公开谈判而颇受争议。大力支持希托的卡塔尔和穆斯林兄弟会对此采取更加强硬的态度，强调谈判的前提就是阿萨德下台。
Such turmoil could turn the coalition into “a dead body”, says Fawaz Tello, an independent member of the opposition. Rivalry between foreign backers is partly to blame, says Salman Shaikh, who heads the Qatari branch of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, a think-tank. The opposition took Syria’s official seat at an Arab League meeting on March 26th—in Qatar. Mr Khatib, however, still headed the Syrian delegation, perhaps a sign that Qatar recognises his importance.
一位独立的反对派成员Fawaz Tello表示，这样的骚动可能会使该联盟解体。驻华盛顿的智库布鲁金斯学会多哈研究中心主任萨勒曼•谢赫称，国外支持势力的竞争是造成这一事态的部分原因。3月26日，反对派取代叙利亚政府参加了在卡塔尔举行的阿盟峰会，但仍是哈提卜率领叙利亚代表团出席此会，这也许表明卡塔尔意识到他的重要性。
In any event, Western governments may find it increasingly hard to influence the fighters in the field, let alone the opposition in exile. Recently the United States and several European countries have intensified their efforts to aid the rebels. Britain and France want to arm them, despite the recent refusal of the majority of European Union members to lift the current arms embargo. 不管怎么样，西方国家也许会发现越来越难以影响到叙利亚国内的反对势力了，更不用说流亡在外的反对派了。美国和欧洲几个国家最近加大了对反对派的援助。尽管最近多数欧盟成员国拒绝解除对叙利亚的武器禁运，英国和法国还是想对其提供武器。
Hush-hush
秘密行动
The American administration remains loth to arm the opposition directly but the CIA has, at the least, been quietly sharing intelligence and training fighters. According to an investigation by the New York Times, the agency has been involved in a covert operation to arm the rebels and has been trying to vet the groups that receive arms through Turkey and Jordan, paid for by Gulf Arabs. It has also apparently sought to block the transfer of anti-aircraft weapons, lest they fall into jihadist hands.
美国政府仍不愿直接向反对派提供武器，但是至少中央情报局一直在秘密地提供情报和训练飞行员。《纽约时报》的一份调查报告指出中央情报局秘密地向反对派援助武器，试图帮助让反对派通过土耳其和约旦，并且由海湾阿拉伯国家支付费用来获得武器。情报局还力图限制防空武器的转移，以免这些武器落入激进分子的手中。
According to Hugh Griffiths of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish think-tank, Qatari planes started to fly in weapons in January last year. Jordan and Saudi Arabia later got involved. The number of flights increased from December, with large consignments of weapons bought in Croatia. “At a conservative estimate they have transferred at least 3,500 tonnes,” says Mr Griffiths. “If it all were to get into Syria—which it hasn’t—it would definitely change the balance of power.”
瑞典智库-斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所专家休•格里菲思表示，去年一月，卡塔尔空军开始运送武器装备，沙特和约旦空军也随后加入，自12月以来，从克罗地亚采购大量武器的飞机数量不断增加。格里菲思说：“保守估计的话，他们至少已经交付3500吨武器装备，如果这些武器全部进入叙利亚-虽然目前还没有-终将打破双方的军事平衡。”
One aim of Western policy is to counter Mr Assad’s allies, who are still trying to bolster his regime. America’s secretary of state, John Kerry, recently failed on a trip to Baghdad to persuade the Iraqi government to stop letting Iranian planes fly weapons through Iraq’s airspace. But some say Mr Assad has been getting fewer arms from Russia and Iran than the opposition has been getting from elsewhere. Hizbullah, the Lebanese party-cum-militia, may be helping Mr Assad to create an irregular force to fight alongside his army.
西方政策的一个目的是反击仍在支持阿萨德政府的国家。美国国务卿约翰•克里最近在访问巴格达时，没能说服伊拉克政府阻止伊朗的运载武器飞机经过伊拉克领空。但是有人认为阿萨德从俄罗斯和伊朗获得的武器要比从别的地方得到武器的反对派少得多，黎巴嫩真主党（政党和民兵组织）也许会帮助阿萨德创建一支非正规军和他的军队一起作战。
Western governments may be too late to achieve their aim of boosting moderates among the increasingly Islamist-leaning rebels. Islamist fighters, including Jabhat al-Nusra, which America considers a terrorist group, are better armed and organised. Some weapons, including M79 anti-tank missiles meant for more moderate groups, seem to have fallen into the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra and other Islamists.
西方国家想要在日益倾向伊斯兰教的反对派中实现温和战略，可能为时已晚。美国认为包括Jabhat al-Nusra在内的伊斯兰教武装分子是恐怖主义组织，他们装备齐全且很有组织。一些武器，如原本为温和反对组织提供的M79反坦克导弹似乎已落入Jabhat al-Nusra和其他伊斯兰教武装分子的手中。
As international involvement grows, Syria’s neighbours are struggling to avoid being dragged in. Turkey and Jordan fear that Mr Assad may retaliate against them. On March 26th Jordan closed its main border crossing with Syria.Two days before, Israel, which has kept out of the fight, fired a missile into Syria after its troops were shot at on the Golan Heights. Clashes have broken out in the Lebanese city of Tripoli, where Lebanese Sunni fighters allied to Syria’s rebels have become bolder. As foreigners get entangled, a risk is growing that Syria’s war will spill over its borders.
随着国际干预的增多，叙利亚周边国家尽力避免牵涉其中，土耳其和约旦担心阿萨德会报复他们。3月26日，约旦关闭了通往叙利亚的主要边境通道。两天前，还未牵扯到这场战争的以色列向戈兰高地南部叙利亚境内发射了一枚导弹，造成叙利亚武装人员受伤。黎巴嫩（北部）城市的黎波里爆发了冲突事件，支持叙利亚反对派黎巴嫩逊尼派武装人员在该市也愈发活跃。随着国外势力的介入，叙利亚战火可能会向其周边国家扩散。